The hottest steel Morning Post policy blows warm w

Iron and steel Morning Post: the policy blows warm wind, and the recovery of the downstream of iron and steel is in sight

core tip: the leader of the machinery manufacturing industry has made a positive statement and expressed optimistic expectations for the recovery of market segments in the middle of next year. "In the severe winter, confidence is more valuable than gold". This news is expected to have a positive impact on high-strength steel, alloy plates and other varieties in the iron and steel industry. The coal industry is also in a lot of difficulties. The voice of business calling for industrial support, timely increasing intervention and government support is strengthening

[hot guide]

● Sany Heavy Industry is expected to usher in a comprehensive recovery in the construction machinery industry in the middle of next year

Xiang Wenbo, President of Sany Heavy Industry, pointed out in an exclusive interview with the media recently that China's industrialization and urbanization process will continue, and with the rise of labor costs, More use of machinery will also become a trend, so construction machinery will usher in a golden period of development in the next few years, and the recovery of the whole industry will be achieved in the middle of next year. In the next few years, the domestic market business will still maintain a high growth rate, benefiting the company's domestic business; The company's export business will grow faster in the future, and its contribution to the company's revenue will be significantly improved

interpretation: Sany Heavy Industry, as the leader of domestic machinery manufacturing industry, has made such a statement, which really helps to restore market confidence. At the same time, we also need to see that there are problems in this industry - the increment of enterprise production has decreased significantly. Although there are still months of inventory, the progress of de inventory is obvious; The social stock is gradually digested, and the idle amount of equipment is reduced; Capacity growth is too fast, and the imbalance between input and output has been adjusted; The upgrading momentum of marketing means is supported by many good news, such as inhibition. However, with the support of positive factors, there is still a gap from the actual recovery. We should not forget to be prepared for danger in times of peace, not to mention that we are still mired in difficulties. Later development needs policy support, as well as enterprise and industry adjustment strategies to reduce consumption and increase efficiency. On the whole, this news is expected to have a positive impact on high-strength steel, alloy plates and other varieties in the steel industry

● the coal industry suppresses the rapid growth of supply

in order to solve the problems of light market transactions, weak prices, increased inventories and so on caused by the relative excess supply of coal, the relevant departments of the state have put forward the urgent production restriction policy, and have asked Shenhua Group China Coal Energy Group and other 14 large coal enterprises should "strengthen self-discipline, not illegal construction, not illegal production, not beyond capacity production; adhere to the scientific organization of production according to market demand, reasonably control the total amount of coal production, and strive to maintain the stability of the coal market; strictly perform contracts, not compete for the market, not engage in vicious competition". However, in this case, the raw coal production in the third quarter not only did not decrease, but increased by 20.3% year-on-year, 1.3 percentage points faster than that in the previous quarter. However, the increase in raw coal production did not lead to an increase in sales revenue, and the sales profit margin decreased by 4 percentage points

interpretation: in the face of the dilemma of the coal industry, although there have been some signs of recovery since October, the foundation is not yet solid, and the market still has the risk of recurrence. Looking forward to the future trend, it is imperative to strictly control the excessive release of capacity concentration and adjust the contradiction between the relative excess of supply and demand in the market. At the same time, the market hopes that the relevant departments will speed up the work of clearing fees and establishing taxes, and introduce some supportive and giving policies for the coal industry; Under the background of gradually obvious signs of market failure, we should increase intervention and government support in a timely manner

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● CISA: the average daily output of crude steel in China was estimated to be 1.9992 million tons in mid October

the average daily output of crude steel in member units of CISA was 1.061 million tons in mid October, and the estimated national output was 1.9992 million tons, an increase of 1.4% and 4.3% respectively over the first ten days of October. Previous data showed that in the first ten days of October, the average daily crude steel output of CISA member enterprises was 1.584 million tons, an increase of 4.9% month on month. The national estimated daily output was 1.916 million tons, an increase of 4% month on month

● Xinjiang promotes high-strength reinforcement Bayi Iron and steel "near water tower"

Xinjiang housing and urban rural development department recently officially announced the high-strength reinforcement promotion plan, which limits the time nodes and technical standards for the promotion of high-strength reinforcement. As the only local steel listed company in Xinjiang, Bayi Steel was identified as a demonstration production enterprise for the promotion and application of high-strength steel bars in Xinjiang

● the Bank of Japan may be forced to "inject" 10 trillion yen into 222pvc plastic window interest rates today.

the Bank of Japan will hold an interest rate meeting on Tuesday. Market participants generally expect that under the political pressure of stimulating the economy and depressing the local currency, the Bank of Japan may expand the quantitative easing model again on Tuesday, and the scale of the asset acquisition plan may increase by at least 10 trillion yen. Pressure switch

[disk summary]

on the 29th, US stocks were closed due to the impact of the hurricane and will continue to be closed tomorrow. Light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell $0.74, or 0.86%, to $85.54 a barrel. The price of gold futures for December delivery on Comex, a subsidiary of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), fell $3.20, or 0.19%, to $1708.70 per ounce. The US dollar index rose 0.23, or 0.29%, to close at 80.24. London Metal Exchange (LME) copper fell $98.75, or 1.26%, to $7724

[futures market analysis]

on the 29th, the futures snail 05 opened 3686 higher, first vibrated around the 3680 platform, and then gradually weakened, falling below the support of 3650 and 3630 levels. The lowest 3616 within the day closed 3619, down 58, or 1.58%. The capital was bearish, the trading volume was slightly enlarged, and the position increased 167000 hands. The downward volume of daily K-line was negative, falling below the support of multiple moving average systems. The high level of KDJ index diverges downward, and the green column of MACD index shows a dead fork downward. Spot prices remained stable, with some wire rods slightly lower. Operation orders continue to be held. Snails are expected to weaken, which will have a negative impact on the spot

[steel market dynamics]

● ore: on the 29th, the imported ore futures market was stable as a whole, and some varieties fell in a narrow range. In terms of port spot goods, Tianjin Port accounted for 63.5% of Indian Pink yuan/wet ton; Rizhao Port 62% PB fine ore yuan/wet ton; Qingdao port 63.5% Brazilian coarse flour yuan/wet ton; The spot bargaining space of the port is gradually enlarged. In terms of domestic mines, the factory price of Tangshan 66% iron concentrate powder on a wet basis, excluding tax, is Zunhua yuan/ton; Qian'an yuan/ton. As the capital market weakened, some steel enterprises in Tangshan and other places wanted to tentatively reduce the purchase price, but the recognition of terminal beneficiation enterprises was always insufficient. It was clear that the market price of major mining areas was still in a stable transition

● billet: on the 29th, Tangshan finished products were mainly stable, but the transaction weakened due to the sharp decline of futures snails. The downstream was cautious about billet procurement, and the merchants were mainly on the sidelines. It is expected that there will be a slight correction in the short term. In the afternoon, the square billets remained stable. The ex factory price including tax of ordinary carbon square billets such as Tangshan Guoyi, Xinglong, Kaiheng and Jianyuan was 3290 yuan/ton, and the low alloy was 3410 yuan/ton; The dealer's bare price is 3190; Changli Hongxing was sent to Tangshan 3310 with tax included

● coke: on the 29th, the tax inclusive price of Taiyuan primary metallurgical coke truck plate was yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, the tax inclusive price of Handan secondary metallurgical coke to the factory was yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, the ex factory tax inclusive price of Yinchuan tertiary metallurgical coke was 910 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, the tax inclusive price of Tianjin Port secondary metallurgical coke flat warehouse was yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, the ex factory tax inclusive price of intermediate secondary metallurgical coke was yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and the ex factory tax inclusive price of Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke was yuan/ton, Up 50 yuan/ton, Qitaihe secondary metallurgical coke ex factory tax price of yuan/ton, Linyi secondary metallurgical coke ex factory tax price of 1370 yuan/ton, Rizhao secondary metallurgical coke ex factory tax price of 1380 yuan/ton, Pingdingshan secondary metallurgical coke ex factory tax price of yuan/ton, Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke ex factory tax price of yuan/ton, coke continues to rise, active trading and investment, steel mills have high enthusiasm for coke procurement, driving the rise of coke prices, and steel mills still have a strong demand for replenishment of inventory, It is expected that the future market will continue to be strong

● building materials: at the close of the 29th, the price of grade II conch of Hegang in Beijing market was 3650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Zhongtian second-class conch yuan/ton in Shanghai market, unchanged from the previous day; In Guangzhou market, the second-class large snail of Guangzhou Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. was yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day

● plate: at the close of the 29th, the closing price of hot coil in Shanghai market was yuan/ton, and the inventory remained low. The closing price of hot coil in Tianjin market was yuan/ton, and the transaction was light. The closing price of hot coil in Lecong market was yuan/ton, and most of the downstream were waiting

[forecast today]

● building materials: yesterday, the mainstream of building materials across the country remained stable, and wire rods in some markets fell slightly. In addition, Shandong market was driven by the factory prices transferred from steel mills in the province, and merchants followed up. Due to the influence of North material going south and local rainy weather, the overall cumulative decline in South China was large. In the middle of October, crude steel output continued to increase, and the supply pressure in the future was prominent. At present, steel mills are releasing goods one after another, and the short-term market lack of specifications is expected to be gradually improved, with great resistance to the rise of current prices. It is expected that the secondary conch of Beijing Hegang will be 3650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Shanghai Zhongtian second-class conch yuan/ton, which was flat with the industrial chain of high-end equipment aluminum research and development; Guangzhou Guanggang grade II conch was 4020 yuan/ton, down yuan/ton from the previous day

● plate: in terms of the market, yesterday's long-term volatility, businesses in most parts of the country chose to wait and see steadily, and shipments have always been limited by low demand, which is difficult to recover. Although the news released by the China Steel Association reflects that the average daily output of crude steel rose again in mid October, at present, the available resources in most markets are low, and businesses still hold a certain price support psychology. It is expected that the National hot coil will be stable now. The mainstream price of 5.5mm ordinary coil in Shanghai market is yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of 5.5mm Tanggang in Tianjin market is yuan/ton; Lecong market 5.5mm Liugang mainstream quotation yuan/ton