The hottest steel market rebounded to empty in Jun

2022-09-23
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The steel market rebounded in June and became empty. It will take some time for the steel price to recover.

towards the end of June, the rebound expected by the steel market has become empty talk, and the off-season sales have become a huge pain in the hearts of steel traders. On the one hand, the price continues to decline, but the decline can not drive sales; On the other hand, the real economy is weak, and the low season and low demand have become bottomless. Businesses have no spectrum in their hearts, and they can only drift with the tide and have the helplessness of boiling frogs in warm water

on the first trading day after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, prices in the domestic mainstream market were generally stable, with rainy weather in many parts of the country and poor transactions. At the end of the quarter, funds were slightly tight, while the market was waiting for the settlement price of steel mills to be issued, and traders maintained a wait-and-see mood

European debt turmoil continues, and the futures market has been volatile.

since the outbreak of a new round of crisis in Greece ignited the escalation of European debt, Italy, Spain, Portugal and other countries have been in debt distress. Even the European Cup has been ridiculed as a poor talk among European countries

according to media reports, the European debt crisis worsened further on the 25th, and bad news continued to spread from Greece, Cyprus and other countries, deepening investors' concerns. As investors are too concerned about the European debt crisis, so good U.S. housing and manufacturing data failed to give any boost to the stock market. Stock markets in the United States and Europe fell sharply that day

the EU summit scheduled to be held this week is expected to continue to discuss how to resolve the debt crisis of Greece and other countries, especially whether to renegotiate the Greek aid agreement, but the outside world is not optimistic about this summit at present. The market is generally worried that the summit will be fruitless

the main rebar 1210 contract opened sharply lower at 4102 yuan/ton on the 25th. In the late opening period, the price quickly rose to 412 yuan/ton. The new national food safety standard system for food contact materials is shown in Figure 10 yuan/ton, but then the futures price gradually fell to the intraday low of 4095 yuan/ton. After that, the futures price again pulled back to 4120 yuan/ton, forming an intraday roller coaster trend. Since then, the futures price has maintained a narrow range fluctuation trend

the rate of destocking in the steel market has slowed down due to seasonal effects

from the data in recent weeks, the national total inventory has decreased slightly, and the inventory of rebar and cold plate has continued to decline, but the inventory of wire rod, hot rolling and medium plate has increased. The decline of steel inventory is slowing down

[rebar inventory] as of the 21st, the rebar inventory in major cities across the country was 6.6678 million tons. Compared with last week (), the rebar inventory nationwide this week decreased by 36800 tons, a decrease of 0.55%, a decrease from last week; Compared with the same period last year (), it increased by 1.1746 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 21.38%, a decrease from last week

[wire stock] as of the 21st, the total national wire stock this week was 1.7645 million tons, an increase of 2800 tons compared with last week, with a month on month increase of 0.15%. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 458900 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 35.22%

[hot rolling inventory] as of the 21st, the hot rolling coil inventory of this week was 1096100 tons, an increase of 2600 tons compared with last week (June 15, 2012), a decrease of 29800 tons compared with the previous month, a decrease of 410700 tons compared with last year, a year-on-year decrease of 26.75%

[cold rolling inventory] as of the 21st, the total cold rolling inventory in China was 1690400 tons, a decrease of 11000 tons compared with last week (June 15); 8900 tons less than last month; An increase of 15000 tons compared with the same period last year

[medium plate inventory] as of the 21st, the total national medium plate inventory this week was 1524400 tons, an increase of 27600 tons compared with last week (20 innovation driven development momentum continued to strengthen on June 15, 2012). Compared with the same period last year (June 24, 2011), it decreased by 13600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.88%

the real economy is overwhelmed and depressed

in the domestic market economic environment this month, macro policies have been blowing "warm wind" since the beginning of the month, including the use of national investment led by the steady growth "troika", including encouraging the consumption of household appliances and automotive products, as well as the real estate speculation demand has been compressed again

however, domestic CPI data fell for months, steel prices fell significantly in the second quarter, and refined oil prices are facing a decline again and again. All production costs are "cooling down", but the real economy is "catching a cold and fever"

first, the prices of crude oil and refined oil fell. On the 25th, the crude oil price in New York fell below $80/barrel, and the oil price was reduced from above $100 to $90/barrel, which can be regarded as a normal fluctuation adjustment, but it was reduced to $80 or less, which reflected that the speed of economic development began to decline

second, the CPI data decreased month by month, but the verification method resource cost and capital tax cost of the automatic tension testing machine for daily necessities, food and labor felt by the public did not significantly decline. While the profits of the steel industry have fallen to the "freezing point", they have to face a number of expenditure projects that have not decreased but increased. Industry insiders believe that the CPI data is that automotive designers are looking for polymer technology that can be affected by higher temperatures to reduce targeted

third, financial credit institutions such as banks have reassessed the profit margin of the steel industry, and the financing of current loans, especially multi-party cooperation and mutual insurance, has been significantly tightened. When the financial institutions of the steel industry encounter the half year time point assessment of deposits and loans, there will be temporary difficulties in capital turnover, which is certain

crude steel unexpectedly rebounded, who paid for the loss

according to the statistical data of China Steel Association, the average daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises in early June was 1.6847 million tons, an increase of 4.5% month on month in ten days; The average daily output of crude steel in China is estimated to be 1.9994 million tons, with a month on month increase of 2.03%, exceeding previous expectations. The average daily output of crude steel of key enterprises in early June was basically the same as that in early and mid May

most parts of the country are currently facing high temperature and rainy weather, and the downturn in market demand is difficult to change. The high level of crude steel production will further aggravate the contradiction between supply and demand in the market

although it is high temperature in midsummer, the steel market is still cold and the occasional blow can make the market shiver. At present, the busy farming season is coming, and some construction sites will resume construction. Analysts expect the market to rebound slightly, but Rome wasn't built in a day. We still have to make a question mark in our minds about the recovery of the steel market

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