The hottest prediction is that the economic growth

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It is expected that this year's economic growth is still expected to reach about 7.4%, and next year's pressure and turnaround

it is expected that this year's economic growth is still expected to reach about 7.4%, and next year's economic operation pressure and turnaround coexist. It is expected that this year's economic growth is still expected to reach about 7.4%

the just concluded central economic work conference summed up the economic work in 2014, and believed that the main goals and tasks of the whole year are expected to be better completed, the economic operation is within a reasonable range, positive changes have taken place in the adjustment of economic structure, significant progress has been made in deepening reform and opening up, and people's living standards have been improved

in 2014, we explored the methods and experience of economic work under the new normal. In the face of the great downward pressure on the economy caused by the superposition of the three phases, the central government adhered to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, comprehensively deepened reform, maintained the continuity and stability of macro policies, innovated macro-control ideas and methods, and made targeted pre adjustments and fine adjustments, achieving sustained and steady economic and social development. The main economic indicators of the whole year were in a reasonable range, the structure tended to be optimized, and the quality was improved. We expect that the annual economic growth is still expected to reach about 7.4%, basically achieving the regulation target of about 7.5% set at the beginning of the year

next year's economic operation pressure and turnaround coexist

in 2015, the internal and external environment is complex, and there are still many uncertainties. The pressure and turnaround of China's economic operation coexist

in the short term, the main risks facing economic growth include: if real estate investment continues to operate at a low level, it will become the biggest factor that will drag down economic growth; Investment projects in previous years have been completed in succession, while new projects are limited, which may be widely active in enterprises, universities and research institutes, dragging down investment growth momentum; The industrial sector is facing deflationary pressure, the prices of major industrial products such as coal, steel and cement are declining in a trend, and the development of the manufacturing industry is weak; The risk appetite of financial institutions has declined, the financial support may be weakened, and the problem of difficult and expensive financing of enterprises is difficult to be effectively alleviated in the short term

from a deep level, the main problems facing economic growth are: the pressure of overcapacity in the manufacturing industry continues, it still needs a long process to resolve capacity, and enterprises are not willing to expand investment and production; The economy is in the period of structural transformation and upgrading, the contribution of the service industry to economic growth is gradually increasing, and the contribution of the industrial sector is weakening; The demographic dividend has weakened significantly, and the rise in factor costs has made it difficult to maintain the previous extensive growth, and China's gains in the process of globalization have been reduced

next year, there are six factors that may bring about a turnaround in economic operation. First, the steady growth policy will still focus on supporting infrastructure construction, and infrastructure investment will continue to rebound, thus contributing to the stabilization of investment growth. Second, the deregulation of policies will help the real estate market reach the bottom and stabilize, and real estate investment may rebound in the second half of the year, thereby stabilizing the overall investment growth; The introduction of a number of measures to stabilize housing consumption will stimulate the consumption of real estate related industries. Third, with the improvement of the international environment, exports will maintain a medium speed, but China's EPDM production capacity is relatively low and grows steadily. The bright prospect of economic recovery in the United States, the deepening of economic and trade exchanges between China and ASEAN, the strengthening of connectivity among Asia Pacific economies, and the construction of the the Belt and Road will promote the growth of trade exports. Fourth, the low level of international oil prices will help Chinese enterprises reduce production costs, support output growth, and help promote consumption in fuel and automotive related fields. Fifth, the reform and policies to promote the recovery of the stock market will increase residents' property income, bring demand for consumption growth and provide a source of funds. Sixth, asymmetric interest rate cuts will help drive the bank loan interest rates, money market capital prices and non bank financing prices down significantly next year, thereby reducing the financing costs of the real economy and enhancing the enthusiasm of enterprises to carry out investment and production and operation activities

we predict that China's economy will continue to operate within a reasonable range in 2015

The central economic work conference put forward the main tasks of economic work next year, requiring to maintain the continuity and stability of macro policies, and continue to implement active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy

active fiscal policy should be strengthened. We believe that we should appropriately expand the fiscal deficit and speed up the progress of fiscal expenditure; Through the implementation of structural tax cuts, promoting tax reform and other measures, we will continue to increase support for key areas such as household consumption, strategic emerging industries, as well as weak links such as agriculture, rural areas and farmers, and small and micro enterprises. In particular, we should vigorously solve the problem of residents being able to consume, daring to consume and willing to consume, and strive to improve social consumption capacity

monetary policy should pay more attention to the appropriate degree of tightness. We believe that the so-called Fang Da group promised to tighten moderately, that is, monetary policy should maintain flexibility according to changes in the economic and financial situation, tighten moderately when it should be tight, and relax moderately when it should be loose. Open market operation, deposit reserve ratio, benchmark interest rate, etc. should be comprehensively used as pre adjustment and fine-tuning tools to better play the role of counter cyclical adjustment, aggregate balance and price guidance of monetary policy. In addition, innovative tools such as targeted refinancing and targeted RRR reduction should continue to be implemented to further promote structural adjustment

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