Prediction: after the 18th CPC National Congress, China's steel prices will gradually decline
it has been a long time awaited, and the "18th National Congress" has finally kicked off. After nearly a month of watching to maintain stability, the steel market will finally see the moon in the watch. I just don't know whether the policy reform expected by businesses will form a positive stimulus to the steel market, and whether the stimulus can support the rise of the steel market after a long time? Generally, when it is known that the steel market will improve, the action of steel mills is the fastest, especially small and medium-sized steel enterprises, once they hear the return of profits, will be fully put into production. The idea of such an enterprise also represents the idea of most enterprises, so the production capacity will face excessive release, and the contradiction between supply and demand will intensify, which is still an important factor hindering the rise of steel prices in the later stage. It can be seen that the steel price rebound in the early stage stimulated the rapid recovery of output. Once a large amount of crude steel increment is put into the circulation market, it will be detrimental to the operation of the steel market. However, the output of many enterprises is rising too fast, and the gross profit of steel price is under pressure, so the profitability is not optimistic. As the domestic steel production capacity is too large, the contradiction between steel supply and demand will exist for a long time, and the price will still fluctuate at a low level
on October 30, the third quarterly report of 2012 ended, with 2493 listed companies in the two cities, and the net profit in the first three quarters decreased by 2%. China's steel industry suffered a huge loss of 3.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters, and the "blood loss" of Listed Companies in the steel industry has become the highest in all industries. Borrowing the words of the chairman of Shougang Group, "great production capacity, bleak market, meager profits", the steel market environment formed at this time can hardly be changed after the 18th National Congress, and the steel market may still maintain a meager profit operation
even if the steel market finally recovers, the steel industry is still difficult. In the end, foreign mines will still devour the recovery results of the domestic steel market. It can be said that "the steel price is affectionate, and the ore price is ruthless". The steel price rises by 1, and the ore-forming price soars by 30%. More cruelly, according to the explosion information, the production cost of domestic mines is three times that of foreign mines. No wonder some domestic mines have been forced to stop production. The disadvantages of domestic mines will make steel mills have to rely more and more on foreign mines. Because they are essential products, the increase of ore price is still uncontrollable. "Steel price rises by 1% and ore price soars by 30%. It is likely to reappear and even expand. It can be seen that even if the steel price rises after the stimulus of the 18th CPC National Congress, the life of the steel market is still difficult
another factor that needs to be considered is that with the continuous decline of temperature, some northern regions will soon officially enter winter, the construction industry will be limited, and the long timber resources will move southward on a large scale. In terms of industry, manufacturing PMI tends to weaken again in October, and the production degree of automobile, home appliance and machinery industries will also weaken. Tape, chain and steel wire rope can be completed, and the demand of manufacturing industry is difficult to continue to improve. In this way, the downstream demand release space of the steel market may be limited
at present, we can see that businesses are still waiting, but we can't blindly place our hope on the stimulus policies issued after the 18th National Congress. After all, the price rise in the later stage requires the cooperation of many parties, such as steel mills and market transactions. In the short term, it is expected that the trend of phase steel will not improve greatly. Especially after entering the off-season, the overall level of consumption is facing a huge test. The slow de stocking directly restricts the steel price market. From the data point of view, infrastructure steel has also come to a short end in the short term. Analysts believe that even if the "18th CPC National Congress" has favorable policies, considering the periodicity of the policies, the rise of steel prices is limited, and the impact on the steel market in the next three or four months is limited
the social inventory of steel will continue to decline after the recovery after the festival, and the inventory may face another recovery.
the social inventory of steel will continue to decline after a week of increase after the National Day holiday, but the decline of social inventory of steel will slow down. According to monitoring data, as of October 26, the social inventory of steel in 29 key cities across the country was 14.734 million tons, a decrease of 248000 tons from the previous month, a month on month decrease of 1.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.0%; Among them, the inventory of construction steel was 5.903 million tons, a decrease of 229000 tons from the previous month, a month on month decrease of 3.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.6%; The plate inventory was 6.831 million tons, a decrease of 20000 tons over the previous month, a month on month decrease of 0.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.4%. Although steel trading enterprises are not willing to store in winter at present, and the operation of "low inventory" is also common, in the later stage, with the increase of production and the weakening of demand, the social inventory of steel may rise passively
the price of raw materials and fuels rose slightly, and the cost support was strengthened.
the price of domestic refined iron powder and imported iron ore rose in October. According to market monitoring data, as of October 31, the average market price of 66% grade dry base iron concentrate in China was 975 yuan, up 60 yuan or 6.6% from the end of last month. In terms of imported iron ore, the market price of 61.5% fine ore in Rizhao Port in Australia was 840 yuan, up 50 yuan or 6.3% from the end of last month. Guangzhou Fiberhome welding machine hardware and electrical machinery
coke prices rose in October, and the average price of national secondary metallurgical coke was 1296 yuan, up 78 yuan from the end of last month; The price of secondary metallurgical coke in Taiyuan was 1180 yuan, up 10 yuan from the end of last month
the rise in raw fuel prices in October will strengthen the support of costs for steel prices in the later period. According to cost monitoring data, the cost price of ordinary carbon billets produced from raw materials purchased in October increased by 160 yuan compared with September
in September, the steel export volume rose sharply month on month, and will maintain a high level in the later stage
in September, the tortuous performance was tested according to gb1042 (7) 9 standard, and China's steel export volume rose sharply month on month. Customs statistics show that China exported 5.15 million tons of steel in September, up 21.5% month on month and 22.2% year on year. In June, China exported 40.94 million tons of steel, an increase of 10.2% year-on-year. In September, China imported 1.2 million tons of steel, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5%. In June, China imported 10.52 million tons of steel, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%
domestic steel export orders continued to maintain a high level in October. According to the survey, the PMI export order index of steel circulation industry is 50.6%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, but it is still in the expansion range; In the same period, the export orders of steel production enterprises continued to rise sharply, and it is expected that steel exports will remain at a high level
the northern region is gradually entering winter, and the demand for long wood plates is facing differentiation.
since September, with the increase of the approval of the project by the national development and Reform Commission, market confidence has been effectively boosted, and the data of downstream industries tend to improve. In September, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 9.2% year-on-year, 0.3% faster than that in August; In January, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 20.5% year-on-year in nominal terms, 0.3 percentage points higher than that in January
from the perspective of infrastructure construction, China's infrastructure investment in September increased by 25.8% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 10.7 percentage points higher than that in August. The sharp rebound in infrastructure construction investment reflects the effect of early policy stimulus measures. Especially in September, the investment in railway infrastructure increased by 111% year-on-year, reversing the negative growth of railway infrastructure investment during the year
although the downstream industry data in September improved significantly, the north will gradually enter winter in November, outdoor construction will gradually stop, and the downstream demand improvement effect brought by the successive launch of infrastructure construction investment projects approved in the early stage will be gradually weakened by seasonal factors. According to the survey, the new order index of the steel circulation industry in October fell 3 percentage points month on month, falling to the contraction range of 49.7%, reflecting the weakening of downstream demand
but from the perspective of manufacturing, China's manufacturing PMI index rebounded to the expansion range in October, which was 50.2%; It shows that there are obvious signs of recovery in the manufacturing industry at present, and the downstream demand for plates will be relatively strong
to sum up, in November, the domestic steel market gradually entered the off-season of demand. Under the condition of improving profits, the resumption of production accelerated, and the contradiction between supply and demand will be further highlighted. However, at present, the support of cost to steel price has been strengthened. In addition, during the period before and after the 18th National Congress, weidplas company in Switzerland has directly adopted the colorform process to produce the new Peugeot 3008 SUV in its R ü Ti factory in Switzerland, which can directly show the advantages of its unsaturated polyester resin, vinyl ester resin, gel coat and other composite material technologies in improving the performance and technology of traditional materials for the audience; And the company's efforts and contributions to enhance China's economic transformation, assist local customers to improve product performance, and enhance environmental protection, safety, energy efficiency and other aspects. The installed A-pillar panel economic policy "focuses on stability". It is expected that the domestic steel market will show an upward trend and then downward trend in November, with little possibility of significant fluctuations in steel prices, and the differentiation pattern of strong plate and weak long material will continue. (steel price in China)
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