It is predicted that China's external dependence on oil and gas will reach 50% in 2020.
Wang Gongli, President of China National Petroleum Planning Institute, said on the 24th that China's external dependence on oil and gas will reach about 50% by 2020 due to the continuous sharp increase in demand and limited production growth. At the "China energy strategy high level forum of the 8th Beijing Science and Technology Expo" held here, Wang Gongli said that with the continuous growth of demand, China's crude oil consumption will still reach 450million tons in 2020, even if the energy elasticity coefficient is reduced by 50% compared with the current level, the car ownership remains within 100million, the import of some chemical products is increased, and the energy-saving potential is fully tapped. He said that the domestic production situation was not optimistic. In 2004, China produced 175 million tons of crude oil, and the peak annual output in the future is only 180 to 200 million tons. The degree of dependence on foreign oil will gradually increase, and may exceed 50% by 2020
it is reported that in recent years, the carrying capacity of the medium contraction is higher than that of the tension. Some industries that are the focus of the plan will benefit from a strong extension capacity in the medium and long term. The demand for natural gas in many countries has exploded. It is estimated that the average growth rate from 2004 to 2020 will reach 11% to 13%. By 2020, the national natural gas demand is expected to exceed 200billion cubic meters, an increase of 5 to 6 times over the current 30billion cubic meters. The proportion of natural gas in the energy consumption structure will also increase from 2.8% to 3% in 2004 to 10%
pan Derun, vice president and Secretary General of China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, also pointed out that in the next 20 years, the regional imbalance between world oil supply and demand will intensify, and the Asia Pacific region will become the region whose importance has been recognized as the most acute contradiction between world oil supply and demand. According to the outlook of the International Energy Agency, the oil import dependence of most countries in the Asia Pacific region will approach about 80% in 2020. Among the stone formula flowing into Asian developing countries: fa-d - the frequency of the smooth intersection of acceleration and displacement (Hz) the growth of oil trade will exceed the total growth of oil trade in all developed countries
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